Overnight, Precious Metals are slightly higher after yesterday’s mixed session. 

Yesterday, Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly warned that the US labor market is nearing an inflection point, where further slowing could mean higher unemployment. That is why we have tracked initial claims data more closely over the past five weeks. For new followers, this data comes out on Thursdays at 7:30 a.m. central time. 

At 9:00 a.m., we will see the release of Consumer Confidence. Expectations are for 100, where the previous reading was 102. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, accounting for most of overall economic activity. 

Year-end Price Objectives

As the second quarter ends, analysts are revising their year-end, 12-month, and 18-month price objectives for Gold. 

Recently, I saw Goldman raise its Year-end price objective on Gold to $2700. 

Bank of America released its report on Gold yesterday, assuming it could hit $3,000 over the next 12-18 months. They cite that it will take ETF inflows, China and other central bank purchases, and de-dollarization by central banks. They also stated that the price objective would need to be fueled by multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed. 

Seasonal Weakness 

(If you follow seasonals, you will note there is an additional disclaimer at the end of this video) 

The strategy of selling Sept Silver on June 1 and covering on July 2 has proven successful in 12 of the past 15 years. This consistent track record suggests that, for some reason, Silver tends to underperform in the month of June. 

On the other hand, July has been a positive month for Copper, Gold, Dow, and S&P. If you want the seasonal details and have a trading account with Blue Line Futures, let me know, and I will send them. 

Technicals

Gold 
Support is $2300, and the First resistance is $2369 (50 DMA). To reignite the bulls, we must see a close above $2392.

Silver
Support 50 DMA at $29.30, with critical support at $28.28. Only a close over $31.19 will bring back a new wave of buyers. 

Long Term Ideas

*Silver Institute 2023*
2023 – Deficit 142 million ounces
2024 forecast 263 million ounces (second largest deficit since 2010)
Demand
-2023 +20% jump in industrial demand to 445 million ounces
2024 exp 485.6 million ounces led by Electrical and electrical industries
Chinese industrial demand jumped 44% in 2023 – partially due to solar panel production

For Clients, we are looking at Buying a call spread for 20 cents with an objective of $1 on an October Basis. Reach out for additional information. 

Enjoy the benefits of Blue Line Futures

Open an account with Blue Line Futures and you will gain access to our daily commodity commentary, free desktop/mobile trading platforms, 24-hour trade desk, and more!

https://bluelinefutures.com/2023-signup/?utm_source=Phil-Streible-Barchart

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